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Temperature

Temperature

The monthly and seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature anomalies averaged over the State of Bihar is given in the Figure 1. The anomalies were computed based on the Long Period Average (LPA) for the period 1981-2010. The State averaged monthly maximum temperature was cooler than average during the months of January, May, June, October, November and December 2021 with May recording lowest monthly maximum temperature anomaly (-3.3oC, fourth coolest since 1901) and warmer during rest of the months. The State averaged monthly minimum temperature was warmer than the average during all the months except in April, May and June with highest anomaly recorded in October (1.7oC). The State averaged mean monthly temperature was warmer than average during all the months of the year except in January, May, June and November. Among the months, the lowest State averaged monthly mean temperature anomaly was recorded in May (-2.1oC, coolest since 1901), followed by June (-1.2oC, fifth coolest since 1901). The State averaged monthly minimum temperature anomaly was recorded in May (-1.0oC, fourth coolest since 1901), followed by June (-0.5oC, sixth coolest since 1901) and the State averaged monthly maximum temperature anomaly was recorded in May (-3.3oC, fourth coolest since 1901). Figure 2 shows the Spatial pattern of Annual Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature anomalies over Bihar during 2021. The maximum temperature anomalies were -1.0oC to -0.5oC while minimum temperature anomalies were 0.5oC to >1.0oC over all the districts of the state except some part of the state. The mean temperature anomalies were within + 0.5oC over most part of the state except few districts. During the year 2021, the annual mean land surface air temperature of Bihar was 24.0oC with anomaly +0.1oC warmer than the average (1981-2010) (Figure 3). No significant trend is observed in the State averaged annual mean temperature during 1901-2021 (Figure 3). The annual maximum temperature averaged over the state during the year 2021 was cooler than average with anomaly of -0.3oC while annual minimum temperature averaged over the state was warmer than average by 0.4oC (Figure 1). During the period 1901-2021, the State averaged maximum temperature showed a significant increasing trend (0.54oC/100 years) while the State averaged minimum temperature showed a significant decreasing trend (-0.53oC/100 years) (Figure 3).

Figure 1: Monthly and Seasonal Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature anomalies averaged over Bihar during 2021.The anomalies were computed from long period average for the base period of 1981-2010 (Source: India Meteorological Department).

Figure 2 (a): Spatial pattern of Annual Maximum Temperature anomalies over Bihar during 2021.The anomalies were computed from long period average for the base period of 1981-2010 (Source: India Meteorological Department).

Figure 2 (b): Spatial pattern of Annual Minimum Temperature anomalies over Bihar during 2021.The anomalies were computed from long period average for the base period of 1981-2010 (Source: India Meteorological Department).

Figure 2 (c): Spatial pattern of Annual Mean Temperature anomalies over Bihar during 2021.The anomalies were computed from long period average for the base period of 1981-2010 (Source: India Meteorological Department).

Figure 3: Annual maximum, minimum and mean land surface air temperature anomalies averaged over the State of Bihar for the period 1901-2021.The anomalies were computed with respect to the base period of 1981-2010. The dotted line indicates the linear trend in the annual mean temperature time series (Source: India Meteorological Department).

Historical Temperature

Temperature (Tmax) analysis for Bihar shows the highest Tmax, in parts of Kaimur (Bhabua), Rohtas, Aurangabad, and Buxar districts (Agro-Climatic zone -III(a). The lowest Tmax is observed in parts of the Kishanganj, Araria, and Purnea districts (Agro-Climatic zone -II).

Figure 4: Mean Maximum Temperature over the Agro-Climatic zones of Bihar (1961-2019).

The historical Minimum Temperature (Tmin) analysis for Bihar shows a significantly different pattern in comparison to Tmax. This also makes the state highly vulnerable to diurnal variation in temperature and can have a critical impact on different sectors, specifically Agriculture and allied sectors. The analysis of the last sixty years of Tmin data shows the western and North-East part of Bihar exhibits the lowest Tmin while the Agro-Climatic zone -III(a) i.e. Banka, Jamui, Munger, Lakhisarai, Bhagalpur, Katihar etc. exhibits the highest Tmin.

Figure 5: Mean Minimum Temperature over the Agro-Climatic zones of Bihar (1961-2019)

The maximum summer Temperature shows an increasing trend in 2011-40. The range of increase varies from 0-2 °C for the 2011-2040 period. The maximum temperature surge will be more severe in Kishanganj and Araria under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections. Similarly, minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0-3 °C during the same time period under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projections. The increase in minimum temperature is projected to be more in south-eastern part of state i.e. Kaimur, Aurangabad and Rohtas districts.

Figure 6: Projected Maximum Temperature (Tmax) under RCP 4.5 during 2011-40.

Figure 7: Maximum Temperature (Tmax) projected under RCP 8.5 during 2011-40.

The minimum winter temperature shows an increasing trend in all the time period of 2011-2040, with 1991-2020 as the baseline.

Figure 8: Minimum Temperature (Tmin) Projected under RCP 4.5 during 2011-40.

Figure 9: Minimum Temperature (Tmin) Projected under RCP 8.5 during 2011-40.